The Transnistrian authorities will try to blackmail Moldova by threatening “Russian intervention,” but this is a bluff.
The appeal of the Transnistrian deputies to Putin during the congress on February 28 was successful . But not about the republic’s accession to Russia, but about guarantees of protection from the so-called “economic pressure” from Moldova. What does this mean?
For the first time in 18 years, deputies of all levels gathered for a congress, not to unite with Russia, but because of the threat of losing “preferential terms” of trade with Europe. Tiraspol does not want to become part of a terrorist state under sanctions. Tiraspol wants to trade with Western countries without paying customs duties.
The key goal of this meeting is to blackmail the official authorities of Moldova.
Initially, Galina Antyufeyeva, the deputy head of the so-called Supreme Council of Tiraspol, announced the intention of Transnistrian deputies to appeal to Putin for accession. This was the first attempt to frighten the political leadership of Moldova, which abolished customs privileges for Transnistrian businesses in January 2024.
Now we are witnessing the second stage – a demand for Putin to protect the “Russian citizens” of Transnistria from harassment. A standard scenario, which in this particular case will end up at the level of “calls” – Putin come.
It was decided to address the Federation Council and the State Duma of Russia with a request to implement measures to protect Transnistria in the face of Moldova’s increasing pressure, taking into account the fact that more than 220 thousand Russian citizens permanently reside in Transnistria and the unique positive experience of Russian peacekeeping on the Dniester, as well as the status of guarantor and mediator in the negotiation process
From the Declaration of the Congress of Deputies of Different Levels of Unrecognized Transnistria of February 28, 2024:
Of course, Russia would not mind opening another front on the border with Ukraine. But if it were possible, it would happen in 2022.
The combat capability of the Russian contingent in Transnistria is extremely exaggerated.
From the very beginning, it was clear that Transnistria had no chance of becoming part of Russia or at least having any kind of connection with Russia. Moreover, today Tiraspol does not need it. Their aspirations are quite pragmatic – to get more favorable terms for themselves. However, Moldova will not go for it.
The Moldovan authorities see Ukraine’s example: that “Russian aggression” can be resisted. That is why it is taking tougher steps toward Transnistria. The period of “persuasion” is over.
Given the absence of borders with Russia, Transnistria currently has a better chance of returning to Moldova than of becoming part of Russia.
If the problem is only with the Russian contingent in Transnistria, it can be solved, as representatives of the Ukrainian special services have repeatedly stated. All you need is an official invitation.
