The research and analysis group InfoLight.UA has thoroughly analyzed how the media coverage of of the most high-profile event of the day – the arrival of the Russian Volunteer Corps fighters in the Bryansk region of Russia and how the messages of Russian propagandists changed. Based on this analysis, we can state with a 99% probability that:
- There were no civilian casualties;
- The appearance of the Russian Volunteer Corps thwarted a large-scale provocation by Russia;
- Despite the actual peacefulness of the action of the RDC fighters, in the future it may affect the mood of the most passionate part of Russian society and lead to a real uprising.
But we’ll talk about everything in order.
So, the first to talk about the DRG was reported was the governor of the Bryansk region, Alexander Bogomaz, on his telegram channel:
Please note that the time of the first message is 10:29 Kyiv time (all screenshots were taken by our team). And at 10:31 a.m., RIA Novosti, RBC, Ridovka, and a number of other websites reported the incident, citing the governor’s words.
At 10:32 a.m., Rasha Tudei reported such details as the shelling of a car, the death of one person and the injury of a child. A boy.
There is a flurry of news:
At 10:36, the first information about a “school bus” was reported.
At 10:48 a.m., the number of attackers and other details were known. “There is a battle going on.”
Within 20 minutes, information about the hostages was already circulating.
At 11:07 a girl dies:
In 10 minutes, she is resurrected:
This was followed by a flurry of contradictory reports about the shelling of a school bus, denials of this (because schools in the region are on distance learning), and attacks on schools.
The news was immediately full of reports of a powerful operation to “neutralize the DRG.”
Of course, the Russian dictator “took everything under his personal control,” “the border is under control,” and “the Nazis will be destroyed.” At the same time, panic is being stirred up about the Security Council meeting and Putin’s canceled visit to the Stavropol Territory, “changing the status of his own.” The boy is still born in 2012.
At 12:16, the RDC fighters published their first video, which means with a 99% probability that they were safe, because transmitting video via mobile means the risk of being tracked and killed.
We would like to draw attention to another discrepancy: the RDC fighters are wearing white and camouflage, while the “witnesses” say that they are all in black. It’s hard to confuse white and black, and military operations can’t exactly be associated with black, but intelligence services or police can:
At 2:16 p.m., Putin’s statement is published, in which he speaks of “terrorists who want to deprive Russia of its history and language.”
However, the Russians continue to hunt and after a while “find a large number of mines.”
The boy is already a hero.
Some MPs propose to declare war, with the destruction of means of communication and weapons delivery” as if there had been no rocket attacks before:
Governors report on “enhanced security”.
At 17:31, the boy was operated on and the “NATO-type bullet” was removed.
At 18:16, the “DRG raid” was “stopped” and the DPR fighters were allegedly pushed back into Ukraine, although a few hours earlier they had been calmly giving comments to journalists:
At the same time, the pro-Russian propagandist Sharii refutes this information and, referring to the boy’s mother, writes that the bullet “passed through the casing.”
In the evening, some Russian propagandists began publishing stories of alleged eyewitnesses:
At the same time, there are no photos or videos of burned houses, the consequences of grenade launcher shots or a shot car.
By publishing “eyewitness accounts,” the propagandists did not even realize how funny some of the moments look, especially the one about the leaflets:
We also publish short videos:
According to this testimony, the village should have been half-burnt, and there should be dozens of victims.
Russian propagandists publish details about the RDC fighters who filmed the video.
At the same time, the RDC, whose fighters were not able to neutralize or catch at least one member, is called a minor organization of “three gags.”
At the same time, they demand to be recognized as a terrorist organization:
Although Grad rocket launchers were urgently deployed to eliminate them:
The soldiers of the Russian Volunteer Corps themselves commented on the events quite calmly. Including those who were on the video, which means that they were safe in the afternoon. It is not known in which country, because it can be assumed that since Russia has closed the border, they could have left in the opposite direction, or in general, they have been there for a long time and there is a powerful underground network in Russia:
And in the evening, a version appears that is confirmed by the events of the day:
The founder of the Russian humanitarian project Gulagu.net, which now operates from France, human rights activist Vladimir Osechkin, put forward his own version of the events. In his opinion, Russia was preparing a false flag provocation in the Bryansk region. But she was prevented by real volunteer saboteurs.
The human rights activist believes that the operation with the “Ukrainian saboteurs” was supposed to start an hour or two later, so when the “unrecorded DRG” came in, they initially decided that the operation had started a little earlier.
“A ‘false flag attack’ was planned: casualties among children, hostages, leaflets, calls for terrorism. The lawn was cleared for “event X,” meaning that the units that knew nothing and could inadvertently go where they shouldn’t were removed as far as possible,” Osechkin wrote.
He added that the real DRG “fell like a brick on its head”: the corridor was being cleared for “their” terrorists, and an hour and a half earlier the RDC arrived there.
A number of employees decided that it had “begun” and simply provided their areas of tasks, mainly information support, which included data on hostages and victims. By the time the FSB figured out that this was not a planned operation at all, the DRGs had already left through a corridor carefully created for “proper terrorists.”
“The corpses of killed Ukrainian saboteurs” were ready in the freezers. They will not be “found” anymore, judging by the situation. The civilians were more fortunate: there, the corpses could have been harvested online, given the press releases about “ruthlessly shot children,” everything had to be very toughOsechkin said.
According to the analysis made by the InfoLight.UA Research and Analysis Group, we see that there are at least a few extremely strange details that have no logical explanation:
- The efficiency of Russian propagandists. TWO minutes pass between the governor’s first announcement and the news in all the leading Russian media!
- In another minute, we’ll have details of the battle and injuries.
- No photos or videos from the scene in the Russian media. Only videos of RDC fighters. But at least the locals should have filmed something and published it.
- Despite the fact that as of 18:00, it was officially reported that there were no RDC fighters on the territory of Russia – no videos of burned houses, traces of fighting, etc.
- In the first two hours, propagandists publish new “details” every ten to twenty minutes. And then there was silence, and only in the evening data from open sources about the RDC fighters and poorly made testimonies (voice) of “eyewitnesses”.
- The above-mentioned inconsistencies in time and color of the “saboteurs'” clothing are already mentioned.
We cannot say that the Russian Volunteer Corps fighters foiled the Russian provocation or what kind of operation it was, but the ease with which they entered and left suggests either that there were no border guards at all (which is unlikely) or that the Ukrainians actually used the corridor that was being prepared for the provocateurs.
No wonder there were reports that intelligence spotted Russians dressed in Ukrainian uniforms.