Despite the widespread belief that Trump’s victory will be a nightmare for Ukraine due to his statements about the possibility of cutting off aid to Ukraine, in fact, a Republican victory could put an end to the exhausting policy of “controlled escalation” and initiate more decisive action.
First, Trump’s return to the White House as the leader of the Western world will make the West stronger. Trump is the only Western leader whom Putin fears, while he openly despises Macron, Scholz or Kamala Harris for their weakness and tolerance. America’s decisiveness, which has become a deficit in Washington in recent years, can have a positive impact on the course of conflict situations in the world’s hot spots and prevent new conflicts from erupting.
Second, Trump’ s determination could lead to pro-Ukrainian shifts in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Biden’s policy of “controlled escalation” has led to an outright deadlock in the war. We cannot strike with long-range American weapons, We have to fight on the basis of some “red lines”, while the enemy does not respect any lines. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis noted, that Russian aircraft are better protected by Western guarantees than Ukrainian civilians.
The chronic delays in military aid, even those approved by Congress, suggest two possible reasons, both of which are negative for the Democratic Party. Either the US army is unable to solve logistical problems, as the Biden administration claims, or the Democrats have been bargaining with the Ukrainian authorities and using delays in arms deliveries as a means of leverage. Very often, as soon as the Ukrainian Armed Forces went on the offensive or made progress, we started having problems with the supply of weapons and ammunition.
Biden’s team explained “escalation control” by preventing Russia from using nuclear weapons and insisted on the effectiveness of slowly depleting the Russian economy and army. But it seems that Ukraine is depleting faster than the 29 times larger country. Trump’s victory may offer Ukraine a way out of what General Zaluzhnyi called “the stalemate”. We do not yet know whether Trump’s determination will be on our side of the geopolitical scales, but the strategy of attrition threatens us with dangerous consequences.
Thirdly, it is unprofitable and unacceptable for Trump to abandon Ukraine without American help, because then the US will discredit itself as an unreliable partner and lose allies. The US partners in Europe and in the Asia-PacificAsia-Pacific region may decide to rely on other factors and other players, If the United States announces that it is abandoning a country that it has helped for many years and promised to support. Where are the guarantees that South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Israel, Israel will receive assistance from the United States in the event of a threat if Ukraine is surrendered? Such a situation would be disadvantageous neither for the American establishment nor for Trump as a businessman. Ukraine is a test of geopolitical reliability for the United States today, and it is highly doubtful that the US will fail.
Given a number of factors , Trump ‘s presidency may not be so much a sentence for Ukraine, but rather a chance to make the situation on the frontline positively more dynamic, instead of the slow exhaustion of our country by the previous policy of “controlled escalation”.
The only question is, whether the Ukrainian authorities will be able to find convincing arguments and convince the new owner of the White House that, that a Ukrainian victory would be a better option than a frozen conflict.
Author: Valeriy Maydanyuk
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