Today, Romania remains the only stable ally of Ukraine that does not block our exports, does not speculate on history, and does not try to get bonuses while our country is fighting against Russian invaders. But while Ukraine values and develops relations with friendly Romania, internal political processes in this country are turning into threatening signals for our defense capabilities.
Significant volumes of Ukrainian grain and key export products go through Romania and important military cooperation is carried out. Against the backdrop of escalating statements against Ukraine coming from Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, maintaining allied relations with Romania is key to our resilience. Against the backdrop of anti-Ukrainian politics of Polish protesters, who complement Russia’s blockade of Ukraine, Romania has become a real salvation for Ukrainian grain exports, preventing the blockade of Ukraine by its fifth column.
But this year, Romania is holding parliamentary, local, and presidential elections simultaneously. And quite expectedly, anti-democratic forces, both in Romania and globally, did not miss the opportunity to influence the balance of power in a country that has become a real Ukrainian rear.
The Kremlin has made no secret of its desire to completely cut off Ukraine’s Western supply and export routes. And although the leading Romanian parties support Ukraine, with the help of non-transparent Internet technologies and manipulations, marginal, pro-Russian forces have suddenly begun to take the lead in politics.
The schedule of Romanian political forces
The party breakdown in December 2024 in Romania looks like this. The most influential was the center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD) of incumbent Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, which gained 23%. The party takes a pro-Western stance and pursues a friendly policy toward Ukraine.
The second place was taken by the until recently marginal Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR ), led by the pro-Moscow Gheorghe Simion, with 18%. The party spreading anti-NATO propaganda, demanding the lifting of sanctions against Russia and stopping support for Ukraine. AUR leaders have repeatedly been found to have ties to Russian special services . Зростання підтримки радикальних антизахідних політичних сил відбувається не лише на ґрунті правого популізму, спекуляцій інтересами румунських платників податків чи впливу кремлівської пропаганди, але й через недоліки політики Брюсселя, котра не здатна залагодити поширення євроскептичних настроїв у Центральній Європі.
The third place in the Romanian political Olympus with a score of 14% is occupied by the Liberal Party (PNL) , a center-right, pro-European, Ukraine-friendly party that is a partner in the current coalition with the PSD.
The fourth highest ranked party was the Union for the Salvation of Romania (USR) with 12%, a center-right party led by Elena Lasconi that made it to the second round of the presidential election. The USR positions itself as a party against the establishment and corruption, mercilessly criticizing both PSD and PNL, and competing on the center-right with far-right candidate Calin Georgescu, who won under the strange circumstances of excessive influence on voters by Chinese social media influencers.
The dangerous fifth place is occupied by SOS party with 7% of the vote. Its leader is the odious Diana Shoshoake, known for her radical anti-Ukrainian statements. and attempts to submit to the parliament a bill on Romania’s annexation of Ukrainian territories.
Close to them is the Party of Young People (POT), which gained 6% and takes a Eurosceptic and anti-Western position. The party left the AUR and supports the winner of the first round of the presidential election, Tibor Gheorghiu.
Romanian coalition
The most likely scenario is the formation of a government coalition based on pro-European forces: PSD, PNL, and the center-right Union for the Salvation of Romania (USR). Such an alliance would have 52% of parliamentary seats. But the PSD was previously in a very difficult coalition with the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL), which came in third with 14% of the vote.
And the third, critical member of the coalition, the Union for the Salvation of Romania (USR), is in a decisive confrontation with the “corrupt elite” of the Social Democrats and Liberals. The most likely candidate for the post of prime minister would be the leader of the largest party, the current Prime Minister of the PSD, Marcel Ciolacu. But he came in third place in the first round of the presidential election and has a difficult situation with leadership in the party.
This situation creates a zugzwang for the USR: for leader Elena Lasconi, entering into a coalition with the dominant parties means siding with the “corrupt elite,” and the only alternative is anti-Western, and often pro-Russian radicals, with whom the USR is fighting for the votes of the “common voter.”
Instead, the PSD will not be able to form a coalition with the right-wing radicals due to deep ideological differences, and the leaders of the Social Democrats and Liberals have repeatedly emphasized the country’s pro-Western orientation.
Scenarios for Ukraine
The fate of Romanian democracy will depend on the second round of the presidential election on December 8. The country will choose between center-right candidate Lasconi and far-right ticker-tape candidate Gheorghesek.
After December 8, Romania may follow the following key scenarios:
- Victory in the second round and the presidency of the leader of the Union for the Salvation of Romania (USR), Lascona, who will act in alliance with the pro-Western coalition between PNL, PSD, and USR. In this case, Ukraine maintains a friendly and partnering Romania, develops exports, military cooperation, and maintains a reliable rear on its western border. The pro-Russian radicals will gnash their teeth powerlessly for another five years, slowly slipping to the margins.
- Georgescu’s victory and the formation of a coalition of far-right parties with center-rightists, which together won about 43% of the seats in parliament. Minority coalition governments are a common phenomenon in European political systems, provided that the leading parties have failed to agree on a coalition.
Romania would then have a Euroskeptic president and a government-parliamentary coalition that could change its friendly policy toward Ukraine to a course similar to Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. Historical grievances, the blockade of Ukrainian exports under the pretext of “protecting” Romanian farmers, may become the new reality of Romanian policy toward Ukraine.
- Basescu wins the presidential election, but a pro-Western coalition is formed in the parliament. Romania may find itself in a political crisis, and such a scenario will lead to antagonism between an anti-Western and pro-Russian president who will become a “Romanian Orban” and a pro-European parliamentary-government coalition that will support Ukraine. However, given that the president plays a key role in shaping the country’s foreign policy, this will mean a narrowing of military and economic cooperation with Romania.
At the same time, many Romanians were so shocked by the victory of the anti-Western Georgescu that protests against the far-right candidate began in the country. This democratic enthusiasm may also increase voter turnout, which was 52% in the first round. And it will encourage citizens to come to the defense of democracy and prevent Romania, already poor and dependent on Western partners, from becoming another sanctioned country in the center of Europe.
On December 8, the Romanian people will choose a scenario that will either improve or worsen the situation for Ukraine on our western borders, but will not stop our struggle for independence, which we have been courageously waging for three years against an aggressor that is 29 times larger than us territorially.
Author: Valeriy Maydanyuk
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