As Polish farmers prepare for another blockade of the Ukrainian border by Russia, and Warsaw looks for historical claims, to blame on the Ukrainians, Poland remains the next target for Russian aggression after Ukraine.
Between Poland and Lithuania lies the so-called Suwalki Corridor, a 100-kilometre-wide section of the border around the towns of Suwalki, Augustów and Sąjne, which connects the Baltic states with Poland and the rest of NATO, while also separating the territory of the Russian Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus. This region is the shortest stretch between the Kaliningrad region and Belarus. Although, given Lukashenko’s vassal status, it should be called the “Union State of Russia and Belarus”. The Kaliningrad region is in fact an enclave of fascist Russia, an island surrounded on all sides by NATO countries. This historically German territory is a Muscovite military base and a kind of time bomb in the heart of NATO.
Pursuing an aggressive policy, Moscow is sincerely outraged by the curtailment of trade and the flow of citizens from the Kaliningrad region to the EU, especially by Lithuania, and calls it a “NATO blockade”. Although European countries do not carry out any blockade or aggressive actions against Russia, this will not prevent the aggressor from finding a reason to accuse them of something. Russians regularly threaten on state television to use tanks to pave the “road of life” through the Suwalki corridor from Belarus to Kaliningrad and “free the region from the NATO blockade”. It is noteworthy that for many years in a row, they have been talking about the “liberation” of Crimea, Donbas and the whole of Ukraine.
In the event of a hypothetical war with NATO, the Suwalki corridor becomes critically important for Moscow. The Kremlin would need to quickly seize the Suwalki corridor, in order to split the Alliance’ s eastern flank and cut off NATO allies ‘ land access to the Baltic States. According to the US military, this region is potentially one of the hottest spots in Europe. This information was confirmed during the CEPA Forum 2015 conference by the Commander of the US Armed Forces in Europe , General Ben Hodges. If the Suwalki breakthrough is realised, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will be completely surrounded by Russian and Belarusian forces, and reinforcements from NATO countries may reach the front too late.
Kaliningrad region remains a casus belli for a future conflict with NATO, in which the Russian army plans to break through to Kaliningrad, which is “blocked” by the territories of Lithuania and Poland, through the Suwalki Corridor. There are only two ways for the Russians to break through the “corridor”:
- through Lithuania , which is militarily weaker and more likely to succeed in a breakthrough. But the disadvantage of this route is its obviousness. In addition, Lithuania has begun construction of 600 million euros worth of fortifications with anti-tank obstacles, “dragon’s teeth”, hedgehogs, trenches, etc. If everyone knows the direction of the Russian offensive during a potential invasion, artillery and drones will be sent there and mined.
- through Poland, which, hypothetically, could prove to be more powerful than Lithuania and has a larger army. The Polish direction would probably be more difficult for a Russian breakthrough, but it would also be more unexpected. Knowing the tactics of the Russians in Ukraine, in particular how they broke through Chornobyl to Kyiv, it is worth seriously considering the option that the Russian army would “break the blockade” of Kaliningrad through Poland. Preoccupied with blockades of Ukrainian grain trucks and historical disputes with Ukrainians, Poles will be less likely to expect an attack, believing that during an invasion, Russians will probably choose an easier route through Lithuania. An additional factor in the “Polish” direction may be that the Suwalki corridor itself has difficult terrain and few roads. However, to the south, in the area of Polish Lipsk, there is an open, flat terrain and a network of roads.
Although the Polish authorities have planned to build a “defence line” near the Kaliningrad region, this has been hindered by… Polish farmers. Poland cannot begin construction of fortifications on the border with Russia and Belarus because of the position of local farmers and private land on these lands. Another problem is that even the beginning of a dialogue with farmers is hampered by political processes, as the country often holds various elections in which the authorities try to win the sympathy of local residents, putting the defence of the border on the back burner.
If Russian aggression against European countries does indeed ever begin, it will most likely, it will most likely be through the Polish section of the Suwalki Corridor.
Author: Valeriy Maydanyuk
Leave a Reply