The difficult situation at the front, difficulties with mobilization , and limited assistance from the allies are actualizing the scenario under which Ukraine will have to put the return of the 1991 borders on the back burner. But Ukraine hopes for a more optimistic scenario and has several reasons for this.
The Ukrainian government and Western partners have begun to mention the negotiation format more often, which is actually a veiled form of freezing the conflict on the existing demarcation line. After all, no one believes in the possibility of forcing Putin’s Erephia to voluntarily withdraw its troops from the occupied part of Ukraine, or at least from the left-bank Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. EU High Representative Josep Borrell has recently spoken about the need to hold another peace summit with Russia. Zelenskyy’s statement that Ukraine will prepare an action plan to achieve peace by the end of November and the possibility of postponing the liberation of Ukrainian territories “diplomatically” is also an important signal.
In this case, Ukrainians can reasonably ask: Didn’t the government lie about the 1991 borders, lacking the resources to do so? Perhaps the Ukrainian leadership was aware of the complexity of its promises, but was forced to reassure citizens with an optimistic scenario in order to maintain the morale of the fight for independence.
Or perhaps Kyiv was hoping for favorable circumstances that might well develop. For example, supplying Ukraine with the entire range of weapons or even Erephia’s entry into a war with other countries. The shooting down of an American drone over the Black Sea by the Russians or dozens of Russian missiles and “Shaheds” in NATO countries were sufficient grounds to expect a deterioration in Russia’s situation. Forbes reports that Ukraine had a chance to destroy a large part of the Russian air force, which was close to Ukraine’s borders, with Western missiles, but the White House refused, fearing “escalation.” Unfortunately, Ukraine has no other allies, and a few years ago it didn’t even have the same allies as it has now.
It is possible that the Ukrainian Armed Forces ‘ operation in the temporarily Russian-occupied Kursk region may be aimed at making Erefia more ready to negotiate and withdraw occupation troops from Ukrainian lands. The delivery of F-16s and the resumption of Western aid is helping to increase Ukraine’s defensive and even offensive capabilities. While some citizens would like peace at any cost, which will only lead to a new”Ruin” and genocide of Ukrainians, our state can still ” trump” and make Katsapstan think about the error of its invasion of Ukraine.
Reaching the 1991 borders is a possible scenario, and it is not necessary to use only frontal attacks in the areas where Russian troops are concentrated. War resembles a chess game and you can strike in a completely different place, forcing the enemy who is about to attack into a panic defense. Ukraine would greatly benefit from “black swans” such as the death of the Kremlin dictator or the opening of a “second front” against Erephia by another state. But even when history does not give us such gifts, Ukraine has not yet exhausted its opportunities to make the enemy realize how painful it is to attack Ukrainians.
Author: Valeriy Maydanyuk
