The crash of the IL-76: important details

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Commentary by Yuriy Goncharenko, Head of the InfoLight.UA Research and Analysis Group, on the information component of the events surrounding the crash of the IL-76 in the Belgorod region.

If we remove the white noise of Russian propaganda and calmly analyze the various reports about the downing of the IL-76, we can notice some seemingly unobvious but important details.

The first reports from the Belgorod region, as early as 10:00 a.m. that day, concerned the announcement of an air alert in Belgorod. It is clear that the announcement of an air alert for the population is not typical in cases of enemy air defense operations against air targets.
Almost immediately, Belgorod telegram channels began posting messages about the alleged presence of a “Ukrainian airplane-type drone” in the sky over Belgorod. A few minutes later, local chat rooms reported that Russian air defense systems had been triggered, as well as traces of missile explosions. Z-bloggers cheerfully and promptly reported on the “suppression of the Kyiv regime’s terrorist attack using airplane-type UAVs on Russian Federation facilities” and the “destruction of a drone over the Belgorod region.”
And immediately after that, the famous video of the crash of the Il-76 of the Russian Defense Ministry was spread on the Internet.

It is noteworthy that many Russians in their comments immediately assumed logically that “did we shoot down our own plane again?” Needless to say, as of now, there are no reports of an air raid in the Belgorod region or information about the “downed Ukrainian UAV” on Russian public pages: the posts have either been deleted or changed.

A real gift for Russian propaganda was provided by some Ukrainian media outlets, which cited unnamed “sources” as saying that the IL-76 was allegedly shot down by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. No details, of course, just hype headlines.

However, the question arises: what could have shot down the Russian IL in that area, other than Russian air defense? Only the Petriot has a similar range. However, if this system were present in this area of the frontline, we would see the downing of Russian “drones” that regularly terrorize the border of Sumy and Kharkiv regions almost every night.

However, it seems extremely illogical that the Ukrainian Air Force ignores enemy fighters and bombers, but targets the transporter on the day of the planned exchange of prisoners of war and in the vicinity of the place where the exchange was to take place.

But the Russian “jackal express” has already accelerated: “Ukrainians killed Ukrainians with American missiles, terrorists are Banderites,” and all that. The same pattern was used by Russian propaganda in the case of the terrorist attack in Olenivka and after the downing of MH17.

A special flavor to the whole situation is added by the fact that at the last minute, representatives of the negotiation team of the Russian Defense Ministry, General Egorov and State Duma deputy Shamsail Saraliyev, did not board the IL-76. What did they know that made them change their plans so suddenly?

This whole situation is an equation with many unknowns that we still have to solve. One thing is for sure: the maximum synchronized work of Russian propaganda, apparently based on pre-made blanks, virtually eliminates the “surprise” of the event for the Russians, and has more and more signs of a carefully planned special operation.

Source: Yuriy Honcharenko’s blog

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