On November 1, Russian special services launched a large-scale information attack called “Maidan-3” aimed at destabilizing Ukraine. This was reported by online.ua, citing its own sources in the security and defense sector.
Ukrainians should remember that a “war of attrition” is about resilience to internal confrontations that Russia actively provokes.
Russia’s new information attack against Ukraine
The timing of a new information attack by Russian special services against Ukraine is November-December 2023.
The operation was supervised by the First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko, and the ideologist was Vladislav Surkov, one of the authors of the Novorossiya project.
Online.ua learned about this from its own sources in the security and defense sector of Ukraine and confirms a cursory glance at the Ukrainian information space.
According to the Russians’ audacious plans, the operation will be conducted in different parts of the world and will be comprehensive and multi-vector.
The goal set by Russian special services and propagandists is to destabilize political life, provoke protests and conflicts in Ukraine itself, and influence the international anti-Putin coalition.
The methodology of Russia’s new information attack will remain traditional for Russian ISIS – panic, despondency, and artificial pitting of politicians and the military.
Russia’s IPSO: imaginary “futility of resistance” of Ukrainians
As for the main topics of information influence of Russian special services on Ukrainian society, there are no surprises.
Some of the real issues that concern Ukrainians today will be raised again: general fatigue from the war, the alleged “futility of resistance,” corruption, the ineffectiveness of international organizations, the suspension of aid from international partners, the ineffectiveness of the political leadership, and various “conspiracy theories.”
A separate item is the “language issue,” which is being artificially put back on the agenda again and again.
At the same time, a number of “peaceful” actions are planned to be organized in Kyiv and the regions, which will have absolutely non-peaceful goals.
For this purpose, Russian special services are actively using the stressful state of Ukrainian society.
In particular, the painful issues of prisoner of war exchanges and military rotation in the combat zone are being raised to a new level.
Active information attacks aimed at disrupting the mobilization process continue. The relatives and friends of the Ukrainian military are being provoked to take aggressive actions that further undermine society.
It is for this purpose that Russia has blocked the process of exchanging prisoners of war.
Russia’s attack against Ukraine’s military and political leadership
The first stages of this operation can already be observed on both Ukrainian and international information platforms, including pro-Russian ones and those targeting the Russian-speaking audience.
New voices in the form of “mothballed” agents of influence (self-styled “experts” and commentators) have been joined by a certain number of Ukrainian politicians and opinion leaders who unconsciously spread Russian narratives for their own PR.
Currently, the main information attack is aimed at discrediting certain government agencies and representatives of the political and military leadership of Ukraine.
In particular, an imaginary “conflict” between different branches of government and specific state figures is being fanned.
According to sources, Russia’s information attacks place the greatest emphasis on propaganda on the Telegram messenger, which is of Russian origin. USD 230 million has already been allocated for this area alone.
Overall, Maidan-3 was the most expensive Russian information operation against Ukraine since 2014, with a total budget of one and a half billion dollars.
Russian special services are preparing assassination attempts on Ukraine’s leadership
A series of assassination attempts on a number of officials are planned. Several groups of performers have been trained for this purpose.
Some participants are already on the territory of Ukraine, while others are preparing to enter from the territory of Russia’s “shadow allies.” The operation will be managed directly from the territory of the Russian Federation.
According to the sources, if the attempts are successful, some of them will be presented as evidence of Ukraine’s “weakness” and inability to protect iconic figures. They will try to pass off other attempts as alleged “internal Ukrainian disputes” that have reached the boiling point.
The special operation of the Russian special services is expected to reach its peak on the anniversary of the beginning of the Revolution of Dignity. According to the “authors”, this will add emotion and symbolism to the events.
In addition, it is during this period that Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian critical infrastructure are expected to peak.
The combination of all these components will naturally increase the psychological impact on Ukrainians and contribute to panic and surrender.
Russia’s destabilization of the world: aid to Israel and Nord Stream
In the international arena, Russians will continue to promote the Middle East in order to divert attention from the war in Ukraine and reduce international aid.
Ukraine itself will be presented as a continuous “Gulyaypole”, devoid of any signs of civility and legality with constant quarrels at the level of the state’s top leadership.
Theories about Ukraine’s involvement in the undermining of Nord Stream will gain new strength.
The ultimate goal of the Russian special services’ information “project” is to prove Ukraine’s failure as an independent state, as its leadership is allegedly “incapable of effective governance, and the people cannot elect worthy leaders.”
That is, it is another attempt to present Ukraine as a “failed state”.
Therefore, political forces in the “West” that are partners with Russia will convince their opponents and voters to switch the vector of support from Ukraine to Israel.
The Ukrainian security services will counter such attacks, but it is important for all Ukrainians to remember that the “war of attrition” is not only about mobilization, tanks and drones. This is resistance to internal confrontations that Russia will actively provoke.
Russian strategists are confident that their regime and society are much more stable and resistant to information and security influences.