Recent sociological studies demonstrate the growing public demand for democratic renewal of the government. According to a poll conducted by the Rating Sociological Group and commissioned by the Center for Analysis and Sociological Research of the International Republican Institute, while 76% of respondents disapprove of the parliament’s performance (35% rather disapprove and 41% do not approve at all), 46% of citizens support the idea of holding parliamentary elections during the war (28% strongly approve and 18% rather approve). Experts see this as a clear signal of the need for political change.
“If we do not start working on the relevant legislation now, in the future we may find ourselves in a situation where elections will become necessary, but the legal framework for this will be absent or imperfect,” – said Yuriy Goncharenko, head of the InfoLight.UA Research and Analysis Group, during an expert discussion at Interfax-Ukraine.
According to the Active Group, support for holding elections under martial law has more than tripled from 5.9% in June 2023 to 19.6% in October 2024. The total support (including those who are “more likely” to hold elections) has already reached 36.4%, while the number of strong opponents has decreased from 46% to 28.2%.
“Month after month, conducting our weekly surveys, we notice a gradual increase in public demand for holding elections under martial law,” – said Andriy Yeremenko, founder of the sociological company Active Group. According to him, this growth is due to a gradual decline in trust in the current government.
At the same time, the level of support for the President of Ukraine remains quite high – 69% of Ukrainians approve of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s work (24% strongly approve, 45% rather approve). However, opinions are divided on the holding of presidential elections: 36% support holding them during the war, while 60% oppose.
According to political scientist Volodymyr Manko, holding elections is a fundamental issue for Ukrainian democracy: “Ukraine is fighting for freedom against tyranny. Democracy versus authoritarianism. This is our advantage. And we cannot deviate from this in any way. There are those who want to curtail democracy, saying there is a war. Then it will be like this – one tyranny against another. And there is no need to be afraid of this – the elections will strengthen, not weaken, the country.”
Experts emphasize that the democratic renewal of the government can be a powerful factor in strengthening international support for Ukraine. This issue is especially important in the context of a possible prolongation of the war. “We are not saying that elections should be announced today. Perhaps it would be a better option if these elections were held after the war is over, at least its hot phase. However, as the analysis of lawyers shows, we are not ready even for post-war elections today, our legislation needs to be adapted to transitional conditions,” – emphasizes Yuriy Honcharenko.
Political expert Volodymyr Soniuk expressed a more radical position, stating that “the need to hold presidential and parliamentary elections is long overdue and overripe, their delay leads Ukraine to defeat in the war and threatens the preservation of the Ukrainian nation and statehood as a whole.”. In his opinion, arguments about the impossibility of holding normal elections during the war do not stand up to criticism.
According to Svitlana Kushnir, editor-in-chief of the InterVizor media platform, the recent US presidential election has also strengthened the public demand for elections in Ukraine: “Ukrainians have seen a celebration of democracy in the United States, and many of them are asking the question: when will elections be held here? We are a democratic nation by nature, and re-election of the government every few years is an important element of normal social and political life for us.”
Experts draw attention to the need to develop clear mechanisms for ensuring voting rights for different categories of citizens – military personnel, internally displaced persons, citizens in the occupied territories, and refugees. It is also necessary to create reliable cybersecurity systems and mechanisms to counter disinformation and information attacks.
The discussion took place on November 14, 2024, at the Interfax-Ukraine news agency during the roundtable “Elections under martial law: between public demand and the strengthening of Russian malicious narratives” organized by the NGO “Democracy Support Foundation” as part of the Ukrainian Experts Talks project. The event was devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the challenges posed by the extension of martial law in Ukraine and the intensification of Russian disinformation campaigns.
The project “Ukrainian Experts Talks” is implemented by the NGO Democracy Support Foundation with the support of Hanns Seidel Stiftung Ukraine/Hanns Seidel Foundation in Ukraine.
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