The newly elected President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, arrived on an official visit to France. It is noteworthy that this was Tokayev’s second official international visit after his inauguration. His first visit, as expected, was to Russia. As Ihor Zhdanov, the Ihor Zhdanov, Minister of Youth and Sports of Ukraine (2014-2019), member of the Founding Board of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) (2020-2021), the visit program can be divided into two separate components: economic and political.
The latter had both a public and a hidden part. No analyst has accurate information about the conversations behind closed doors. However, there is enough indirect evidence to at least guess what exactly they were talking about.
It is likely that during Tokayev’s stay in Moscow, he could have received certain signals from Putin about possible conditions acceptable to Russia for at least a temporary “settlement” of the war in Ukraine, which he asked to present to Western leaders during his visit to France. This assumption is supported by the fact that Tokayev’s visit to France was extended over two days.
In addition, on the day of the end of the Kazakh president’s visit to France, Macron immediately went on a state visit to the United States, where he met with President Biden on December 1. This visit was planned in advance.
The French president has already said that he will contact Putin immediately after his conversation with Biden.
However, his preliminary assessment of the conversation is hardly comforting to the Russian dictator. Macron has made it clear that a “good peace” is not a peace that is accepted by only one side. On the other hand, he was very cautious about Ukraine’s prospects for victory.
One thing is clear today: it is the President of France who has taken on the function of mediator between the parties concerned: Russia, Ukraine, and America.
By the way, it is noteworthy that on November 29, ships and aircraft of the Russian armed forces moved to combat positions to launch a missile strike on the territory of Ukraine. However, these strikes were not carried out. It can be assumed that such actions were planned by the Russian authorities and can be interpreted as a “muscle play” before the negotiations. And the refusal to strike is presented as another “gesture of goodwill.”
It should be noted that there are no hints in the public space that Western allies are ready for any secret negotiations.
It is also worth mentioning that during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, face-to-face with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that he would not recognize “quasi-state entities” in Donbas.
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