The second part of our study “Neutralizing Russia’s destructive influence on the mobilization process in Ukraine: retrospective analysis and the strategy of partial military service as a long-term solution”. The first part is available at by following this link.
An important clarification:
- To collect the information that became the basis for the study of Russian influence on the mobilization process, special software based on artificial intelligence was mainly used. The methodology, verification and processing tools are not disclosed in this publication. They are provided to partners in the security and defense sector.
- Some of the collected and available materials are not published, but have been transferred to the relevant services of the Security and Defense Sector (and have been transferred since June 2022).
- We also note that everything you read below, especially the analysis and conclusions, are our subjective opinions and cannot serve as a basis for defamation charges. Wherever possible, we provide links to information from open sources, and the conclusions we draw may be erroneous.
- At the time of publication, these materials were submitted to the relevant government agencies for review and response.
Examples and key players
The persons mentioned in this section, in our opinion, which, of course, may be erroneous, are spreading narratives that coincide with the Russian ones, which leads to negative consequences for Ukraine. All other conclusions and verifications should be made by the relevant authorities.
The May 2022 video has 4.1 million views. This is a very atypical number, as well as the topic for this profile in general. Alexey Osker’s video was reposted from TikTok. It is unknown how many other profiles it is posted on.
Main message: ordinary people are fighting, the authorities are hiding. A few quotes (in the original language):
– “Is any MP, any son or nephew of a MP at war today? No. Or maybe the children of ministers are fighting? No.”
– “They command our guys, they give criminal orders, which then destroy our guys, and then they change the dates of death and funerals.”
– “Military enlistment offices have become a kind of repressive body in Ukraine.”
The video has 1 million views. This is a completely atypical number for this profile (which does not look like a bot). Anton Gura’s video, uploaded to another profile. Summary: There are agreements between Ukrainian oligarchs and MPs and the enemy so that their businesses are not touched. This is an agreement at the highest level, since only Putin can actually give an order not to launch missiles.
A defendant in several criminal cases, he is a good example of destructive activity in the information space of Ukraine. In 2021, he was already implicated as an accomplice in the case of the “sale” of the post of the head of the Mykolaiv Regional State Administration for $600,000. Then he was arrested for 60 days with the possibility of bail in excess of UAH 16 million. A year later, the court changed the measure of restraint to house arrest, which he repeatedly violated, as evidenced by video footage taken outside his apartment.
With the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Osker began to actively discredit (and, according to his own claims, criticize) the volunteer movement, distributing videos about the allegedly poor supply of Ukrainian military personnel due to the theft of aid.
His narratives found support – for example, soldiers of the 110th Brigade publicly thanked him in one of their video messages “for publicizing information about the crimes of the military leadership.” During this period, he also held joint streams with Ostap Stakhiv.
Osker also took actions that could have destabilized the situation in Volyn, claiming that the local administration deliberately delayed the process of processing humanitarian cargo and calling for the overthrow of the regional authorities. These statements were publicly denied by the head of the Volyn Regional Military Administration, Yuriy Pohulyayko, after which local media began to characterize Osker as a fraud and collaborator.
In 2023, the SBU served Osker with a suspicion under Articles 435-1 (insulting the honor and dignity of a serviceman, threatening a serviceman) and 109 (actions aimed at violent change or overthrow of the constitutional order or seizure of state power) of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. The investigation established that his stories were regularly used by Russian special services and Kremlin propagandists to prepare and conduct information sabotage, in particular for Solovyov’s talk show. In addition, he was involved in an attempt to organize paid-for “protests” in Kyiv aimed at undermining the internal situation in the capital.
Known before the war as an opponent of vaccination and founder of the Human Rights movement, he became another prominent actor in the campaign to discredit the mobilization. His activities have a long history of alleged collaboration with pro-Russian forces.
In November 2021, the SBU served Stakhiv with a suspicion of attempting to overthrow the constitutional order in Ukraine. The investigation found evidence of Russian intelligence services’ involvement in organizing the anti-vaccination movement in Ukraine. Fragments of correspondence between Stakhiv and his supporters on Viber were made public , where they discussed plans for terrorist acts and the seizure of power. It was significant that Kyrylo Stremousov, who was later included in the register of traitors of Ukraine, came to the court hearings in his case to support him.
He spreads various conspiracy theories and conspiracy theories.
With the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Stakhiv reoriented his activities to counter mobilization. In his videos, he spread narratives about “abductions and torture of people” by territorial recruitment centers. He paid special attention to spreading disinformation about the alleged illegitimacy of the TCCs, referring to a non-existent decision of the Supreme Court. To coordinate his activities, he created a network of closed groups on Viber and Telegram.
In 2023, Stakhiv expanded his activities by creating a new organization, the Union of Human Rights Defenders of Ukraine. As part of this structure, he introduced the practice of issuing “international certificates of human rights defenders”, which, despite their lack of legal force, were presented as documents that “protect” them from law enforcement agencies and the TCC.
Stakhiv’s activities reached a peak in early 2024, when his team launched an active campaign in the villages under the slogan “liberating people from the captivity of the TCC”. In particular, at the end of January 2024, Stakhiv’s group organized a provocation in Berezne, Rivne region, trying to “liberate” a local resident, Vasyl Pleskach.
For these actions, in 2024, Stakhiv was arrested without bail for 60 days on suspicion of fraud and disclosure of information about the location of the Armed Forces units. However, his supporters managed to post bail in the amount of UAH 908 thousand, which allowed him to be released from custody and continue his activities.
As of the beginning of February 2025, he was released on bail and continues his activities, including “human rights training.”
Anton Gura
A person who became famous during the lockdown due to the hype of airplane reports. Later he took an active part in the activities of the so-called “anti-vaccinationists” as a “human rights activist”. He actively spreads anti-mobilization messages, and in 2022, he spread calls to travel abroad, convincing people that it was legal.
On November 27, 2022, Anton Gura published a post with an alleged link to his subscriber. He wrote everything from the point of view of a person who obviously has no understanding of finance at all: “the only world currency… is not backed by… either commodities or gold”, “does not exist in paper form”, and has an expiration date. He frightens readers with hyperinflation, digital slavery, and almost apocalypse and chipping.
Gura posted a video with a similar plot on his YouTube channel, and the idea was picked up by Ostap Stakhiv, who, by the way, had previously filmed a video with his associate Stremousov (a collaborator in the occupation “government” of Kherson region, who allegedly died in an accident on the eve of the liberation of Kherson). Later, Gura’s post was shared on the Russian social network VKontakte. New absurd details appeared there, which sometimes did not coincide with each other.
According to the Stop Fake publication, Anton Gura published an alleged screenshot of correspondence with a Ukrainian commander who warns soldiers against drinking Saint Spring water, as the Ukrainian military was allegedly supplied with poisoned bottled water.
Marian Chava
One of the main media resources of Chava is the YouTube channel “Know Your Rights!”, created on May 17. 2021 р. The first videos on it (of those available for viewing) date back to the fall of 2021. There are only a few of these videos, and they make it clear that we are dealing with opponents of vaccination, or as they also call themselves – human rights defenders. The last video before the full-scale invasion is dated February 18, 2022, and shows him and several members of the same movement trying to enter a closed school. In this video, he introduces himself on behalf of the organization Dosta-Ukraine. And this gives us the first connection.
A little bit about Dosta-Ukraine. The organization is based in Zakarpattia. According to YouControl, the founders are Pavlo Pavlov, Oleksandr Krychfalushi, and Vasyl Maradyk. The following facts can be found in open sources.
“Among the ‘achievements’ of these pseudo-activists are large-scale thefts, beatings, unnatural rape by a group of people and even murder. Not to mention systematic hooliganism, which for some reason is not always noticed by law enforcement agencies. Who are they really – the leaders of the Dosta NGO? ” the media write. “Pavlo Pavlov began his ‘activist’ career as a member of the organized criminal group of the criminal authority Kopchi from Velykyi Bereznyi, which was involved in the smuggling of illegal immigrants. For such illegal activities and a number of related crimes, mainly for inflicting bodily harm, Pavlov received his first real sentence, which he even boasts about today, saying that he was in prison for a good cause.”
Under the guise of volunteering, in 2014 Pavlov declared himself a defender of the rights of the so-called “crossers”. The result of this “human rights” work was the blocking of the checkpoint in order for Pavlov and his associates to collect money from the same “crossers” for solving border crossing issues. The “crossing” itself became impossible thanks to Pavlov’s insults toward the border guards in Transcarpathia. At the same time, Pavlov began to “fight” illegal logging and illegal gas stations in order to obtain the so-called “bribe” and take control of the same illegal logging.
“Other activists of this organization are Ivan Bovkun (Khust branch of Dosta), convicted of unnatural rape with severe bodily harm, and Vasyl Bilak, assistant to the head of Dosta, convicted of murder and gang rape,” the media reported .
In June 2020, a scandal broke out in Chernivtsi when ATO veterans (at the time) doused Nazar Nikorchuk, a representative of the Dosta organization, with green paint at a rally near the city council.
“Standard Kremlin blanks are voiced through him: “there is a civil conflict in Ukraine”, “veterans are dustbags who fought for medals”, “referendums should be introduced”, “veterans and other patriotic events are paid-for actions”, “Ukrainians and Russians are brothers”, “what difference does it make what language you speak” and other standard fifth column blanks”, Alla Tkachuk reported on this incident.
It is noteworthy that next to Nikorchuk in the photo is Petro Sologub, one of the heroes of the publication “A powerful network of Russian propagandists and alleged agents operates in Ukraine under the guise of volunteering.”
It is also known from open sources that the NGO Dosta Ukraina organized various actions against the “forced vaccination campaign” in Ukraine. For example, in Vinnytsia. In November 2022, representatives of this organization spoke out against “unfair selective blackouts” during Russian missile strikes on infrastructure. Pavel Pavlov, the head of the Dosta NGO, is suspected of committing a fatal accident that occurred on the Uzhhorod bypass on December 5, 2017, Ivan Bovkun, one of Pavel Pavlov’s closest associates, is suspected of committing a “unlawful extortion of money from a private company for not creating obstacles in its activities, when he tried to influence the company’s managers, to whom he offered to “close the issue” by paying a certain amount of money every month. In another case, he threatened physical violence, disruption of work by systematically calling the police to the facilities where the company’s employees worked, and publishing video footage of all this on social networks.” .
In October 2020, an action “demanding the abolition of the fee for the transportation of natural gas and the reduction of tariffs, making them affordable for people” was held near the office of ChernivtsiGaz, organized by the NGO Dosta, and the applicant was “an investigative journalist from the All-Ukrainian NGO JOURNALISTS AGAINST CORRUPTION – MOVEMENT FOR JUSTICE Petro Solohub”. Another connection between Dosta and Petro Sologub.
In 2022, it was assumed that Petro Sologub was the main public representative of the “anti-vaccination movement” in Chernivtsi and had close ties to Anton Hura.
Dosta has an extensive network of branches in western Ukraine, as well as in Luhansk, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kyiv regions.
Marian Chava has built an equally large network.
Currently, Marian Chava and his activities are focused on several areas, where countering mobilization is only one of them.
Additionally, in 2022-2023, several dozen people were identified who were probably also involved in organizing counter-mobilization (were at the origins of this process) or spread narratives that coincided with Russian ones. This information was passed on to the relevant services.
Critical moment #1 (first half of 2023)
In early 2023, a contradiction between two information flows emerged in Ukraine. Against the backdrop of the successes of the fall of 2022 (the liberation of Kharkiv and Kherson), despite the difficult battle for Bakhmut, there was a sense of imminent victory. Official communication was built around the slogan “Become part of the army that will defeat Russia.” To reinforce this narrative, a social media campaign was launched, claiming that not joining the Armed Forces meant being a coward who would be ashamed to face the world.
However, this approach had the opposite effect – those who were really afraid of war received additional confirmation of their fears. Statements about an imminent victory (supported by rumors about possible elections) encouraged this category of citizens to avoid mobilization in every way possible – “we just need to wait it out.” The final negative point of this period was the “courage overcomes fear” campaign, which only deepened the gap between official communication and the real moods of a large part of society.
This period was marked by the completion of the formation of networks to counter mobilization throughout Ukraine. Previously created channels and groups (described in the previous sections) united into several dozen networks that both duplicated each other and coordinated at the right time.
The activities of the network, which actively used the narrative of “I am a human being,” became particularly dangerous. Its members began to create fake regional and local “state administrations”. The network went beyond the usual opposition to mobilization and started propaganda about renouncing Ukrainian citizenship, creating parallel authorities, and even “registering a new republic of Ukraine with the UN.”
To coordinate actions, a special mobile application was created that allowed:
– Reporting your location
– Receiving advice on how to act in different situations
– Having your own analog of the Diia application with a “human identity card”
It should be emphasized that the “formation of local self-government bodies” carried out by these networks obviously did not find a reaction from Ukrainian counterintelligence. Perhaps this was done for a specific purpose, but impunity led to the scaling up of these networks.
At the same time, summonses were distributed at council sessions of various levels, which were perceived as imitation, especially since no real mobilization took place afterwards.
Another factor of influence was the isolated but well-publicized cases when courts declared mobilization illegal.
In April-May 2023, videos of alleged detentions by force during mobilization began to be widely disseminated. At first, these videos were staged, but later, anti-mobilization networks began to deliberately provoke TCC employees to use force.
It is important to note that in the first half of 2023, the word “busification” was gradually introduced into the information space of Ukraine, which at that time “lived” exclusively in videos that could be considered Russian propaganda.
MPs such as Heorhii Mazurashu also actively opposed the “force mobilization”.
The most famous provocateurs were the previously mentioned Marian Chava from Drohobych and Roman Zavoloka from Poltava (who was detained in August 2023 and later sentenced to 6 years in prison). Their method was the same – to record their attacks and insults on video, to demonstrate the possibility of avoiding mobilization and to provoke a violent conflict.
The same period also saw the first physical clashes between civilians and the military, which were widely reported in the media. In June 2023, it was reported that a representative of the JVC TCC was attacked and severely beaten in the village of Rokytne in Kyiv region. In July 2023, in Uzhhorod, an employee of the military registration and enlistment office beat a woman in the street in front of her military husband, for which he was fired.
As we can see from the first event, the Ukrainian media disseminated information about an alleged domestic conflict as one related to the performance of official duties by a TCC employee, allegedly because he “mobilized the wrong people.”
Some media outlets published materials that could be interpreted as a call for resistance, including armed resistance, to TCC employees.
“You cannot break into someone else’s home without a court order, but the employees of the TCC in Khmelnytsky Oblast ignored this rule. Ukrainian judicial practice knows of examples when those who broke into a home were shot, and the law was on the side of the shooter,” the popular publication Focus wrote in July 2023.
While law enforcement agencies focused on identifying small-scale fraudsters who tried to monetize the mobilization theme through fundraising, a professional agent network methodically built its influence and increased the audience of information channels.
Their activities were systematic and balanced. The use of real cases of corruption in the TCC was particularly effective. According to the classical disinformation scheme, a small share of disinformation was added to the reliable facts about bribery and illicit enrichment of individual TCC employees, forming a narrative that the entire mobilization system exists solely for the enrichment of its participants.
An illustrative example of successful manipulation was the initiative to replace the staff of the rear TCCs with wounded soldiers and soldiers on rotation. This decision, which seemed logical at first glance, had unexpected consequences: the positions were filled by military personnel with combat experience, who had lost their comrades and often suffered from PTSD. As a result, the number of aggressive detentions and conflict situations increased significantly.
Provoking public violent conflicts was one of the key tasks. The incident in Lviv, where a citizen punched a soldier in the face after the latter used a gas canister, was particularly illustrative. It is noteworthy that the beginning of the conflict was left out of the picture, which is typical of provocations such as those organized by Marian Chava in Drohobych and other provocateurs. However, while in most cases the military avoided escalation, in Lviv the provocation achieved its goal.
The impunity of such provocateurs was ensured by strong legal support and significant financial resources. Their lawyers successfully challenged the “illegality of mobilization” in courts, setting precedents and inspiring others to resist.
The channels controlled by the network massively disseminated videos of successful confrontations with the military and law enforcement, creating a belief in society that only those who “failed to defend their rights” were subject to mobilization. When the number of videos with forceful detentions reached a critical mass (several hundred), and certain cases, such as the shooting in Dnipro and the detention in Odesa, became widely publicized, the network added several obviously staged videos. In particular, the video from Shostka, where the military allegedly threw a man into a trunk, looks questionable – a classic example of an information and psychological operation to shift the focus of public attention.
Strange decisions that were later either refuted or canceled did not help mobilization.
The dissemination of staged and later real videos of individual forceful detentions had a dual purpose: to create splits in Ukrainian society and to influence an international audience.
Some of these videos were distributed by influential international figures, including Elon Musk, without being able to verify their authenticity. The hashtag #conscription was actively used to increase international influence. This campaign may have partially influenced the subsequent suspension of US aid, especially given the lack of adequate communication with representatives of the US Republican Party.
It is worth noting that one of the tweets contains a screenshot of a Foreign Policy article that reads literally the following: “The US should immediately stop supporting Ukraine due to human rights violations during mobilization.”
This is an article from 2022, which discussed the order banning movement between the regions, which was quickly recognized as ridiculous. However, it also played a negative role.
In general, this stage is primarily characterized by the fact that the Ukrainian military and political leadership and the institutions responsible for mobilization and its information support did not carry out long-term planning and responded to challenges in a chaotic manner. This allowed them to “put out fires” but accumulated problems. At the same time, it is worth noting that the relevant services ignored the open activities of Russian networks, which can be explained by an incorrect assessment of the threats. However, this will have very serious consequences in the future.
Critical moment #2 (fall 2023)
During this period, calls for active resistance to mobilization by force became systematic. “Lists of TCC employees” began to be published, and numerous videos appeared on the topic of “returning from the front and punishing the TCC employee who mobilized you.” The spread of such materials took place against the backdrop of the approaching winter, the expectation of more blackouts, the unrealized optimistic expectations of the beginning of the year, and the intensification of Russian propaganda.
Corruption in the TCC and the existence of planned mobilization targets forced recruitment center staff to resort to mobilizing “anyone” and use harsher methods of coercion than the situation required. Many of these videos were posted online and caused scandals.
Hostile information resources and media, which were interested in viral content rather than objective reality, actively used any video or photo material showing any actions with people in military uniforms to stir up hysteria and reinforce the narrative that the CCC employees would use only brute force to ensure mobilization.
For example, a family conflict led to the spread of disinformation that TCC employees use ambulances for covert mobilization.
This also resulted in people being sent to the front who, even if they were motivated, could not fully perform combat missions. Formally manned military units were losing their combat capability, which led to a decrease in motivation and increased negative feedback.
The situation was exacerbated by the lack of mobilization reforms announced by Defense Minister Reznikov. Due to the change of the Defense Ministry team, these initiatives either got stuck in bureaucratic procedures or were rejected due to the ambitions of the new leaders.
Misleading communication of mobilization issues continued, with calls for reforms or fair burden-sharing transformed into the narrative that “mobilization is a one-way ticket.”
This period was particularly productive for Russian propaganda. A picture has emerged that is optimal for the enemy:
– The fatigue of soldiers who had been without rotation for a year and a half
– The growing number of Ukrainians who refused to be mobilized “because of corruption”
– Lack of an effective motivational campaign by Ukraine with an active anti-motivational campaign by Russia
– Gap between the government’s promises in the spring and reality
– Spread of conflict narratives about “pissants”
– Approaching winter and care for their own families
– Aggressive actions of the TCC employees, street distribution of summonses in a brutal manner
– Daily reports of corruption in the TCC
– Excessive bureaucratization of army procedures
All this created the basis for further escalation of the confrontation between society and the mobilization system.
At the end of 2023, a window of opportunity to change the situation appeared. In October-November, it became finally clear that there would be no quick end to the war, and the counteroffensive did not achieve its planned goals. An additional factor was the suspension of American aid. Ukrainian society abruptly changed its expectations from positive (quick victory) to uncertain. The publication of Valeriy Zaluzhny’s article about the prospect of a long war and the public discussion about the need to mobilize 500,000 Ukrainians created a moment for an honest dialogue with society.
This moment could have become a point for restarting social processes and reforming the mobilization system through a frank conversation with Ukrainians, recognizing the objective reasons for the failure to fulfill military plans, and introducing new approaches. The reform was initiated, but its start was compromised by the unfulfilled promise of demobilization, which became one of the key problems.
The research and analysis group InfoLight.UA, systematically monitoring Russia’s destructive influence on mobilization, regularly informed both publicly and directly partners in the security and defense sector about emerging threats and possible scenarios.
In September 2023, we first publicly emphasized that the probability of a mobilization failure scenario was 90% and emphasized the steps that needed to be taken to remedy the situation. At that time, we first warned about the risks of mass unrest in case of resistance to mobilization and clashes with the use of weapons.
Continued in the next part.
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