Ukrainian and Russian units began digging trenches, indicating that the front line has gradually stabilized. Both sides have begun using industrial excavatorsto build fortifications, Ukrainian sources say – Forbes
The fact that both sides are consolidating their positions does not mean that the Ukrainians have completed their offensive. Nor does it mean that the Russians cannot counterattack and push the Ukrainians back to the border, which is 10 miles away.
However, this indicates the possibility of stabilizing the front line and Ukraine’s long-term occupation of part of the Kursk region.
Russian military correspondent Alexander Kharchenko says this is”the worst thing that could have happened.”
Ukrainian sources have observed industrial excavators working on both sides of the front line.
“As soon as the enemy picks up shovels, in two days it will be as difficult to capture forest plantations, as it was near Avdiivka” in eastern Ukraine, Kharchenko added. ” It took the Russian army six months to push back the Ukrainian defense near Avdiivka, and it cost them tens of thousands of casualties.
It is likely that the Russians won the battle for Avdiivka in mid-February only because because the Ukrainians ran out of ammunition after several months of delays in US military aid to Ukraine, caused by pro-Russian lawmakers in the US Congress.
Now that U.S. aid is flowing again, Russian forces around the Kursk Bulge cannot count on the Ukrainian invasion corps to run out of ammunition. To drive thousands of Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region, they will have to capture trench after trench.
The publication provides estimates of the size of the Ukrainian corps invading the Kursk region into 5 brigades of 2,000 men each and one independent battalion of 400 men.
The area of fighting in Kursk region is now 720 km², having increased by 70 km per day
Of course, if the Kremlin fails to organize a powerful counteroffensive before the construction of Ukrainian trenches is completed. But”the window of opportunity is closing fast,” Kharchenko warned, and Ukrainian attacks are blocking Russian reinforcements trying to reach the front line in Kursk.
If and when the situation stabilizes, The Kursk Bulge could become another important front in Russia’ s broader 29-month war against Ukraine.
The Ukrainians have already deployed potentially more than 10,000 troops in the Kursk region and neighboring Sumy region in Ukraine. And according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, The northern grouping of Russian troops is trying to move 10-11 battalions to the front line, possibly a total of about 4,000 troops.
However, these 10 Russian battalions are only the first echelon. On paper, the Northern Military Group has 48,000 troops. Many of them are stuck in Vovchansk, where the Russian offensive across the border between Russia and Ukraine began in May .
Indeed, forcing the Russians to weaken their forces on other fronts could have been the main goal of the Ukrainian invasion corps.
Kyiv is probably trying to”divert some of Russia’s attention and troops deployed in the eastern parts of Ukraine,” said France 24 journalist Emmanuelle Chazet, citing Ukrainian sources.
When the trenches are completed, this distraction could be long-lasting – if not permanent.
