There is nothing new in what Russia is doing. And sooner or later, it is easy to guess which scenario we are being pushed towards. Let’s analyze together all that has happened in recent months and what may happen soon.
What does Russia need most right now? Obviously, a respite. Because the modern Russian army cannot defeat Ukraine in a conventional war, hopes for strikes on infrastructure have been dashed by the record warm winter and the resilience of Ukrainians. The Kremlin continues to try to implement this scenario rather by inertia, but it is clear that in the last month of winter, Ukrainians will find the strength to resist even in a complete blackout, especially since the number of different means of survival of resourceful Ukrainians far outweighs the enemy’s efforts.
They also cannot stop supplying Ukraine with weapons, although they are making every effort to do so, and the enemy obviously has a chance. For too long, the Kremlin has been cultivating agent networks, centers of influence, and feeding useful idiots in the EU, Britain, and the United States. If you don’t believe me, check out the Useful Idiot project: https://usefulidiot.info/.
There are also attacks on Ukraine’s reputation, both by external and internal players. But I’m not going to write about this now, because it is unfolding right before our eyes. However, I do not believe in success: these attempts are too marginal. And there are no facts of misuse of Western weapons or funds during the entire period of the Great War.
Therefore, the only way out for Putin is to force Ukraine to agree to a truce that is unfavorable to us. According to the algorithm that was tested during Minsk-2. The enemy will now try to achieve a local success at the cost of extraordinary efforts, ideally some kind of encirclement, a resounding victory. As a last resort, it will try to launch another extremely brutal missile strike. By choosing some new, more stunning targets. And through agents of influence, we will again be offered a new reading of the old song.
It is not difficult to see the parameters of this “peace”: freezing the existing borders, starting an endless negotiation process, gradual easing of sanctions with the lifting of the most painful ones. Ukraine will be offered a cessation of hostilities, the restoration of part of its energy infrastructure, and the vague hope of returning its territories “peacefully” through the negotiation process. The West will be offered a halt to the war and spending on aid to Ukraine, and traditionally, cheap energy and business instead of war. The people of Ukraine will be offered a victory in the form of “new territories,” “stopping the shelling of Donbas,” “demilitarization,” and “the West kneeling before the power of Russia.”
In reality, this is a pause for recovery, with the intention of attacking Ukraine again in five years, from a better starting point and, accordingly, with a greater chance of success. The Kremlin remembers the experience of Afghanistan, where the failure of the campaign led to the fall of the communist regime, among other things. And they remember the experience of Chechnya. When defeat in the first war led to victory in the second.
Ukraine will not be in a better position to resolve the Russian issue than it is today. The enemy is as weak as possible. Western assistance is only increasing. In the spring, there is every chance of going on the offensive with no less success than in the fall. Therefore, we should not listen to those who are now suggesting that we accept Russia’s proposals. We need to make it clear that Russia is behind it all. No wonder the exchanged Medvedchuk was forced to work off the money once invested in him as a collector of pro-Russian voters.
This voter no longer exists in Ukraine. Support for the EU and NATO is 80-90%. The country is reforming and has every chance of gaining membership at least in the EU. Someone very powerful took offense at Iran and helped Ukraine with the recent attack. Tanks and most likely Western aircraft will soon be in Ukraine. As well as missile defense. The army is being reformed for combat conditions. Not without problems and attacks from the outside, but the progress is obvious.
As for me, the main thing is to resist emotionally and informationally. Do not give in to pressure. Keep your emotions to yourself. Don’t believe fakes and fakes. Support the Armed Forces. Throw out various “seamstresses” from the information menu. Believe in the Armed Forces, Zaluzhnyi, Budanov, Shaptala, Syryskyi…
Everything will be Ukraine!
Yuriy Honcharenko , specially for InfoLight.UA
