The independence of the peoples of the North Caucasus is a matter of time. Another thing is that it is currently impossible to predict what kind of time. Many generations of ideologues of independence of dozens of national communities have dreamed ofthe opportunity to put the”last nail in the coffin of Russia” many generations of ideologues of independence of dozens of national communities have dreamed of. How realistic these plans will be is an open question. However, right now history is giving these nations another”unique chance.”
It is clear that in any case , Russia will emerge from the war in Ukraine weakened politically, militarily and economically. On the one hand, this will reduce its ability to implement various power scenarios. On the other hand, a cornered rat poses the greatest danger.
Another”parade of sovereignties” may indeed put an end to the very possibility of Muscovy’s existence, as the last world empire. Therefore, it will fight for its integrity with particular ferocity. No means will be left untried.
What exactly the possible new entities will be called is not so important. In this context, the restoration of the Mountain Republic created in 1917-1918, as a state of the peoples of the North Caucasus is a perfectly acceptable option. Of course, this is possible only under the following conditions, if the representatives of these peoples can find common ground and agree on acceptable rules of coexistence.
After all, it is precisely this pain point that Russia will hit particularly hard. It may happen that the project itself will become impossible not so much because of Russia’s military power, but rather due to a series of internal conflicts. The history of the Moscow empire is full of vivid examples of artificially stirring up contradictions between enslaved”small peoples.” Some of them exploded and still remain unhealed wounds that are constantly bleeding from open clashes.
One thing is clear: the future of the North Caucasus is directly linked to Ukraine’ s success in the current war. Another factor is the overt or covert support of world leaders.
However, this will also depend on Ukraine’s success on the battlefield. In case of a Ukrainian victory, the half-dead Russia will be finished off without much fear or pity. At the same time, the main instrument of”dismemberment” will be representatives of former national minorities, who will organically turn into representatives of national majorities of the new state formations.
How realistic is this scenario?
No one can give an accurate forecast today. But there is no denying that there is a chance. The support of such a project by Ukraine, which is increasingly gaining credibility in the world, is a foregone conclusion. The current” worldleaders” are still looking at new prospects. But they will definitely support it under favorable conditions.
One way or another, The Caucasus itself must initiate this process and put the issue of independence on the global agenda.
The road is made by the one who walks.
Ihor Zhdanov, Head of the Information Defense Project at theOpen Policy Foundation, Minister of Youth and Sports of Ukraine (2014-2019). Blog for Interfax-Ukraine.
