Moldova was granted candidate status for EU membership along with Ukraine in June 2022. However, the more than 30-year-old problem of Transnistria has become a threat to EU integration, potential Russian aggression and the Russian “fifth column” in the country.
Brigadier General, Minister of Defense of the Republic of Moldova (2009-2014) Vitalie Marinuta and former head of intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Moldova Iurie Bricag visited the online.ua studio as part of the delegation of the Association of Veterans and Reservists of the Republic of Moldova. They told online.ua correspondent Ivan Hrynevych how the problem of Transnistria can be solved, what is the main threat to Moldova, and what threatens the country’s European integration. This is the second part of an interview with Vitalii Marinuca and Yurii Briciag for online.ua. Read the first part here.
Moldova needs to get rid of the neutral mentality
On the eve of the new year, the director of Moldova’s intelligence and security service, Alexandru Mustiate, said that in 2023 there is a threat of an attack from Russia and it is not a matter of probability, but a matter of time. On January 14, a warhead of a Russian missile fell on the territory of Moldova, and this is the third time it has happened. Yuri, is Moldova ready for a potential war? What steps can Moldova take after these incidents, apart from diplomatic ones?
Editor’s note: After Mustiatea ‘s statement , the Moldovan Information and Security Service clarified, that Russia’s goal of creating a land corridor in Transnistria is still relevant today, and a new Russian offensive in this direction could take place in 2023. At the same time, the realization of this scenario depends on the course of the war in Ukraine.
YB: I hope that the pro-Russian channels and politicians who still exist in Moldova will soon look for ways to leave for the Russian Federation as soon as possible. Because no one is happy for them here (in Moldova- ed.). They want it.
Believe me, Mr. Marinuca and other colleagues who went through [the war] in 1992, no matter how many of us there are, many or few, we will defend our country. We will not let the Russian Federation feel at home. The best example for us is Ukraine, which is really fighting for its independence and for its statehood. Therefore, they (Russians – ed.) have no opportunity to seize the Republic of Moldova today, thanks to Ukraine.
VM: When you say: If you want peace, prepare for war, it doesn’t sound very true. If, say , about 15 years ago we would have said: “Let’s invest more in the armed forces, because one thing will happen, and thenanother, and thenanother, and then another, and very few people would agree to do that.
I know from my own experience, because not so long ago, in 2012, when I was the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Moldova, I said, let’s invest in our armed forces. Everyone said, “But everything is peaceful, our neighbors are peaceful, no one is going to attack us. We are a neutral country. Why? We don’t need it”. Well, 10 years have passed, and now in the Republic of Moldova we have to think this way. If we want peace, we must prepare for war.
We have to be prepared. Here I would like our government to do more in terms of mobilizing the economy, and in terms of mobilizing personnel, reservists, training; and created or entered into alliances.
We are well supported by non-lethal equipment, armored personnel carriers. We have recently received three armored personnel carriers from Germany, and we will receive 16 more. But we need to prepare as a whole.
The most important thing that the Republic of Moldova needs to do is to move away from the worldview of neutrality, that everything is fine, no one will touch us, everything will be fine and dandy. No, it may not be.
We need to prepare the mentality of people that this can happen, And when your mentality is ready , you are ready to fight, as Ukraine is now.
I think that before 2014 , Ukraine was not ready to fight. After 2014 , it prepared not only weapons and equipment, but most importantly, its spirit. And in February 2022, when the aggressor attacked, the spirit was ready, the spirit of the nation, the spirit of the people, the spirit of the younger generation. We need to work on this. We need to learn from you.
How to demilitarize Transnistria
A representative of the Sandu party proposed to demilitarize Transnistria with the help of Ukraine and NATO. How do you think and why did they start talking about it? If Russia attacks Moldova in 2023, as the head of the security and intelligence service stated, what kind of attack could the Kremlin make? Will it come from Transnistria? What are the possible scenarios?
VM: We can ‘t say that the Russian Federation will be able to do this right now. Again , we come back to the fact that they have neither the strength nor the means at the moment. They have received a big slap in the face. And even their partial mobilization, which gathered into the army those who were neither mentally nor physically prepared, physically, or militarily prepared, cannon fodder. They will not be able to break through to the Republic of Moldova.
This is not the first time that the demilitarization of the Transnistrian region has been mentioned. This is one of the packages of the negotiation process, but it was not touched upon for many years because the process itself was dead.
Now the separatist leadership of Transnistria is thinking about what to do, how to pay the invoices that have been coming from the Kremlin for 30 years, they were given money, they developed as they wanted. No one asked anything in return. They are worried about how they can keep their own pocket money. Because the separatist leaders of Tiraspol have, and this is no secret, businesses, factories, and houses in Ukraine and in Europe.
I think the moment will come when they will have to decide. It will depend not so much on Moldova, than on Ukraine’ s success in this world, and I think it will be resolved soon.
Are Russian troops in Transnistria ready for war?
How well can Russian troops in Transnistria be equipped? How did they realize that they were not ready to fight either Moldova , Ukraine , or Russia? And will they ever be ready?
YB: All the weapons that they have are left over from the Fourteenth Army. This is the first thing.
Secondly, they really don’t want to fight, because the Transnistrian army consists of 90% of Moldovan citizens who have several passports: Transnistrian, Moldovan, Romanian, and Ukrainian.
We know of cases when mobilization began, and they started issuing summonses to citizens of the Russian Federation who are on the territory of Transnistria. They then began to take out Moldovan passports and say that they were citizens of the Republic of Moldova. In other words, the conflict that started in 1992 dragged on.
The generationhas changed. The young people who now make up the army of Transnistria live or study in the Republic of Moldova, travel to Europe, Romania, Bulgaria. They see a different life and do not want to live like in Russia.
Therefore, it is not difficult to open 20 criminal cases on the usurpation of power by the Transnistrian leadership, and that would be the end of the conflict.
VM: Here, in the end, we should not underestimate the military capabilities in Transnistria. Even though they are using outdated equipment with commanders who do not have normal skills.
I should also mention the Russian contingent , which consists of 1600-1800 soldiers. They have either Moldovan, Ukrainian or Russian citizenship, because the Russian contingent has not been rotated for the last three or four years. They don’t allow it.
Accordingly, they recruit people from the local population. And that’s one thing when you have no choice and nowhere else to work to provide for your family. Then young men enlist in one of the structures, so in Transnistria each state structure has its own special forces battalion.
It ‘s different to go and kill, to die for someone who is sitting in some Kremlin somewhere.
Transnistria has a 20 , 000-ton ammunition depot that is not controlled by anyone but the Russian Federation. This should also be taken into account, as it can be used to arm the population of Transnistria to the teeth.
We don’t know what kind of ammunition it is, what kind of condition it is in. But most importantly, I think we need political will in Kyiv and Chisinau to resolve this conflict.
Moldova sees itself in the European Union
What is your forecast for the security situation in Moldova for the next six months?
YB: First, I want to say that our people are quite wise. They see what is happening, they see what the Russian world is.
When we talked about blackmail with gas, this blackmail lasted all the years of independence. There were apples, tomatoes, Moldovans who could not get a job in Russia.
I want to say that the majority of citizens of the Republic of Moldova see their future in a big European family, They are focused on the European Union alongside Ukraine, our neighbor, our brother.
I am more than sure that the war will soon end with Ukraine’s victory and the victory of the entire sane world, which sees what outrages and war crimes are taking place on the territory of Ukraine.
I used to teach humanitarian law. I want to say that every Russian soldier who sets foot on the territory of Ukraine is a potential war criminal.
I don’t know if there will be room in the Hague prison for everyone. But they are all potential criminals. Because people who don’t want to fight, they don’t fight. They go to prison, they run away.
This is also wrong, because we need to deal with the Russian authorities, we need to change them from within. They have to forge their own happiness. But for the future, this year, I see that there will be changes for the better, both in the Republic of Moldova and in Ukraine.
VM: Of course, thechanges will be for the better, we will make them ourselves. But, unfortunately, 2023 will still be very difficult for us, because we have a war on our doorstep, at our borders.
I don’t see it ending anytime soon. Unfortunately, this will affect the development of the Republic of Moldova.
Our biggest security problem is not even external, It is only because Ukraine is at war and is deterring the Russian aggressor. And it will continue to win.
The threat is internal. The fifth column, as we call it, those pro-Russian political forces and non-governmental organizations and other organizations.
This is an election year. At the end of it, there are local elections. So, Russia will do everything possible to crush us economically and bring to power , first at the local level, then at the central level, puppet parties.
Therefore, all the people who realize what freedom of speech and freedom of action are, and loves the visa-free regime to Europe, – should do everything possible to ensure that in the future those parties that are against aggression and support democratic development that are against aggression, support Ukraine and democratic development. This is the only way we can work.
We work hard, we believe strongly in our future, our allies, partners and support each other, of course, to get through all the difficulties.
Jerelo: ONLINE.UA
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